Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
72 0x723d…c208 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+42%) realized +$96 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +57.6% +42.6% 100% 67% +60.8%
≤30d 3 +57.6% +42.6% 100% 67% +60.8%
≤90d 3 +57.6% +42.6% 100% 67% +60.8%
all 3 +57.6% +42.6% 100% 67% +60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.6% 67% +60.8%
10% +29.0% 67% +45.5%
15% +16.5% 33% +31.4%
20% +5.1% 33% +18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $67 $38 −$30 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$59 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $46 +$11 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $47 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.50 · official $37.50 (match) · 10 history records