Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x723e…fbc6 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-14%) realized −$27 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$63
sports 13% +$32
crypto 8% −$14
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.3% -7.5% 35% 29% -30.1%
≤30d 17 +2.3% -7.5% 35% 29% -30.1%
≤90d 17 +2.3% -7.5% 35% 29% -30.1%
all 17 +2.3% -7.5% 35% 29% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 29% -30.1%
10% -16.3% 29% -36.8%
15% -24.4% 24% -42.9%
20% -31.8% 24% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 47¢ $67 $51 −$16 (-24%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 −$3 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$4 -29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +196%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$8 -63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$10 +249%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 55m
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $2 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.59 · official $206.59 (match) · 48 history records