Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7243…8409 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,840 (-3%) realized −$1,840 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate64%66W / 37L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,067
7 days−$837
14 days−$1,000
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$128
world 38% −$1,309
sports 4% −$484
politics 4% −$580
finance 2% +$115
tech 0% −$28
crypto 0% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +27.8% +15.6% 75% 42% -15.9%
≤30d 43 +5.4% -4.7% 74% 23% -11.3%
≤90d 89 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 24% -12.3%
all 103 +3.6% -6.2% 64% 25% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 25% -12.1%
10% -15.2% 14% -20.5%
15% -23.4% 11% -28.2%
20% -30.9% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,236) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$159 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,840
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses66 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage238d
Avg bet$682
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $400 −$7 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $1,918 −$1,439 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $842 −$800 -95%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $948 +$137 +14%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $197 +$42 +22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $709 +$123 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,174 +$30 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,552 +$154 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,722 +$72 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $196 +$802 +409%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,959 +$69 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,175 +$125 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,970 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $89 +$211 +237%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,766 +$111 +6%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1,751 +$23 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $2,169 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $96 −$92 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $193 −$186 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $175 −$168 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $140 −$134 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $120 −$117 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $855 +$11 +1%
Will the US lose jobs in May? Jun 05 $2,231 +$199 +9%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 05 $1,236 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $412 −$5 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 +$141 +241%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $481 +$47 +10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $152 +$2 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $1,795 $0 +0%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $197 +$22 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,590 +$13 +0%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $67 +$33 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,782 +$18 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,767 +$88 +5%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $1,684 +$16 +1%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 23 $514 −$514 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,755 +$45 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $970 +$28 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $822 +$23 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,866 +$50 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,829 +$37 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1,795 +$34 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $689 +$10 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3,006 +$9 +0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $84 −$26 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $6 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $13 42m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $1 49m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $8 50m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $4 50m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $16 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 41¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 37¢ $17 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 38¢ $37 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 40¢ $96 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 41¢ $189 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 39¢ $400 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 18¢ $400 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $41 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,000 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $589 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $415 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $427 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $67 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $194 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 31h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 46h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 47h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 47h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 47h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 47h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $36 47h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $276 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 505 history records