Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7244…2aaf crypto 1307 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,530 (-25%) realized −$1,530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%801W / 701L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day115.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$696
7 days−$742
14 days−$742
30 days−$1,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$331
weather 7% −$45
world 4% −$5
politics 3% −$4
other 2% −$11
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -82.0% -83.8% 1% 0% -49.0%
≤30d 1502 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 45% -24.1%
≤90d 1502 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 45% -24.1%
all 1502 -17.5% -25.4% 53% 45% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 45% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 32% -31.4%
15% -39.0% 23% -38.0%
20% -45.0% 23% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses801 / 701
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1502 / 1307
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day115.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1502 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $0 −$1 -1442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $0 −$4 -3646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -78%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$8 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$24 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $41 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 12¢ $2 1h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $184 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $184 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 65¢ $2 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 74¢ $37 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 74¢ $37 6h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 5¢ $2 7h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 6¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 83¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $17 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 19¢ $4 8h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 22¢ $4 8h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL No 83¢ $17 9h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 85¢ $17 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $2 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 75¢ $4 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $5 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 11h
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? SELL No 50¢ $10 13h
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? BUY No 51¢ $10 13h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $3 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 13h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 23¢ $22 13h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 24¢ $24 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $44 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records