Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
72 0x7248…cb88 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,756 (-9%) realized −$1,752 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 44L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$391
14 days−$391
30 days−$2,644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$1,082
sports 32% −$1
other 17% −$809
crypto 13% −$735
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.4% -19.0% 47% 35% -20.8%
≤30d 74 -27.4% -34.3% 41% 28% -24.9%
≤90d 74 -27.4% -34.3% 41% 28% -24.9%
all 74 -27.4% -34.3% 41% 28% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 28% -24.9%
10% -40.6% 22% -32.1%
15% -46.3% 18% -38.7%
20% -51.6% 14% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -38% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$96 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,752
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage28d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs largadosypelados 39¢ 30¢ $19 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $91 −$55 -60%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $23 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $332 −$145 -44%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $27 −$9 -35%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $4 +$6 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $44 −$40 -91%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $25 +$19 +78%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $408 −$183 -45%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $289 +$74 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $118 +$16 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $814 −$210 -26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $292 +$30 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $257 +$41 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $240 −$20 -8%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $198 +$79 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $187 +$11 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -62%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $8 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $788 −$364 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $717 −$393 -55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,606 +$139 +9%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $321 −$319 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1,764 −$897 -51%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $3,071 −$170 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 -1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $455 +$348 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 02 $105 +$116 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 02 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$1 +3%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $327 −$35 -11%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 02 $125 −$122 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $105 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 02 $102 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY largadosypelados 39¢ $19 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 93¢ $18 12m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 86¢ $17 19m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 14¢ $18 19m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $74 58m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 80¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 78¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 73¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 78¢ $8 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 5¢ $74 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 8¢ $114 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 12¢ $113 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 22¢ $219 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 27¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Yellow Submarine 67¢ $17 3h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 40¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 38¢ $4 17h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Team Liquid 1¢ $4 17h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 11¢ $44 17h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $44 17h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $25 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $24 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $161 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $162 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $155 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $155 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $31 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.48 · official $14.48 (match) · 237 history records