Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x724c…1521 sports 1297 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,805 (-2%) realized −$8,809 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%934W / 360L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$987est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$19,162
other 7% +$1,208
world 0% −$17
politics 0% +$857
weather 0% +$25
crypto 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -4.9% -13.9% 62% 43% -11.8%
≤30d 440 -3.7% -12.9% 74% 34% -12.3%
≤90d 1294 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 40% -12.9%
all 1294 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 40% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 23% -21.2%
15% -28.2% 13% -28.8%
20% -35.3% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$111 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$8,809
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses934 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$987
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1294 / 1297
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$352
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Gentle Mates 69¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Madison Keys 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 17 $10 +$24 +237%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,501 −$38 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$1 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $403 +$139 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $300 +$11 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $500 +$11 +2%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $501 +$47 +9%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $10 26m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 69¢ $10 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 16h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 84¢ $10 26h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 89¢ $10 26h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $10 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $10 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 32h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,442 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 39h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,401 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 39h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 40h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $89 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $89 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $90 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $100 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 29¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.37 · official $34.24 (match) · 3500 history records