Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7253…0558 sports 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,576 (-9%) realized −$2,546 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%75W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$449
30 days−$789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,616
other 4% −$142
world 0% +$45
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 -17.2% -25.1% 33% 33% -24.8%
≤90d 125 -11.2% -19.7% 41% 41% -16.3%
all 187 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 40% -17.9%
10% -22.7% 40% -25.7%
15% -30.2% 40% -32.9%
20% -37.0% 40% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$150 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$2,546
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses75 / 112
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions7
Markets (closed)187 / 194
History coverage154d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $201 $232 +$31 (+15%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
LoL Cross Regional 2026: C9 vs DNS C9 48¢ 47¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $196 +$183 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $135 +$266 +197%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $198 +$191 +97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $202 +$101 +50%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $204 +$384 +188%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $202 +$140 +69%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 28 $407 −$214 -52%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 28 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) May 28 $202 +$123 +61%
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 27 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 27 $205 +$887 +433%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $200 +$234 +117%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO5) - Prime League 1st May 21 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 20 $204 +$368 +180%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 20 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 20 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $204 +$384 +188%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 17 $203 +$153 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $51 +$134 +262%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $204 +$367 +180%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 15 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier P May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 +$1 +89%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 14 $203 +$155 +76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $203 +$168 +83%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $51 +$149 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional 2026: C9 vs DNS BUY C9 48¢ $20 17m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 30h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 30h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 11d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $196 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $135 12d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $51 14d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 53¢ $203 14d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) SELL LOS 100¢ $389 14d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) BUY LOS 50¢ $198 15d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 21¢ $205 17d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America SELL Fluxo W7M 100¢ $303 17d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY Fluxo W7M 66¢ $202 18d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 57¢ $203 18d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 60¢ $202 21d
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs BUY The Bandits 54¢ $203 23d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 51¢ $203 24d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 18¢ $205 24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $203 25d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY GIANTX 34¢ $204 25d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl BUY Eintracht Spandau 44¢ $203 26d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Sentinels 42¢ $203 26d
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag BUY CCG Esports 29¢ $204 27d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp Blue 23¢ $205 27d
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs BUY Once Upon A Team 39¢ $204 28d
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY TLN Pirates 19¢ $205 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.34 · official $346.34 (match) · 283 history records