Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
72 0x7256…ef54 politics 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 30% +$9
politics 18% +$1
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 49 +3.3% -6.6% 39% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 4% -8.7%
10% -15.5% 4% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 2% -25.4%
20% -31.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.27 per $1 lost it wins $8.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage324d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $6 +$8 +127%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 13 $8 $0 -6%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 05 $8 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Kash Patel out by July 31? Jul 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $65 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $66 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $18 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $11 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $32 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 46h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $49 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.77 · official $65.93 (match) · 313 history records