Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7258…a6b8 sports 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%91W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$3
other 20% −$3
crypto 9% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.2% -17.0% 39% 37% -8.6%
≤30d 196 -3.7% -12.8% 46% 44% -10.6%
≤90d 196 -3.7% -12.8% 46% 44% -10.6%
all 196 -3.7% -12.8% 46% 44% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% -10.6%
10% -21.2% 42% -19.1%
15% -28.8% 39% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 35% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses91 / 105
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)196 / 208
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +272%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +30%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -74%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +199%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -68%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 +$2 +131%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +87%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +84%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$3 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$3 +114%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +83%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 24¢ $3 52m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 27¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 8¢ $1 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $4 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 27¢ $1 18h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 26¢ $2 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 36¢ $2 40h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $3 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $3 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 17¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 46¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 48¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 34¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $2 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe SELL Yamal 22¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY G2 Ares 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.30 · official $17.30 · 381 history records