Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7258…302f crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+16%) realized +$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$93
other 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 44% +12.0%
≤30d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 44% +12.0%
≤90d 55 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 44% +12.0%
all 55 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 44% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 44% +12.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 38% +1.3%
15% -25.9% 36% -8.5%
20% -33.1% 33% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 36¢ 28¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$45 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $16 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $7.00 (match) · 89 history records