Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

72 0x725a…5caf world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d

TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,995 (-49%) realized −$2,057 · open +$62

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%7W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$239per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$208

7 days+$584

14 days+$142

30 days+$163

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-14.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+121.3%	+100.2%	100%	100%	+124.6%
≤30d	11	+21.0%	+9.4%	64%	64%	-0.6%
≤90d	13	+2.3%	-7.4%	54%	54%	-43.8%
all	14	-5.0%	-14.0%	50%	50%	-57.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.0%	50%	-57.4%
10%	-22.2%	50%	-61.5%
15%	-29.8%	36%	-65.2%
20%	-36.6%	21%	-68.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -54% → late +44% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$110 vs −$400 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage

Net worth$292

Realized−$2,057

Unrealized+$62

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses7 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage121d

Avg bet$239

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	28¢	34¢	$84	$103	+$19 (+23%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	1¢	3¢	$42	$100	+$58 (+139%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$104	$88	−$16 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 19	$125	+$188	+150%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Jun 18	$60	+$20	+34%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	Jun 17	$209	+$376	+180%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	Jun 10	$535	−$535	-100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Jun 10	$103	−$18	-17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 09	$100	+$40	+40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Jun 07	$300	+$70	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	May 31	$26	+$20	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	May 29	$53	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	May 29	$5	−$5	-94%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	May 29	$130	+$56	+43%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Apr 12	$550	−$550	-100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Apr 07	$712	−$712	-100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	Feb 18	$930	−$930	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	BUY Yes	16¢	$104	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL No	94¢	$313	2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$42	10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	38¢	$76	32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	37¢	$18	32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	37¢	$31	32h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	16¢	$80	36h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	12¢	$59	47h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	12¢	$1	2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	SELL No	86¢	$576	2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	SELL No	86¢	$2	2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	SELL No	86¢	$8	2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	27¢	$67	4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY Yes	28¢	$84	4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	33¢	$124	6d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	32¢	$18	6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	28¢	$112	9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	42¢	$415	9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?	BUY Yes	42¢	$8	9d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	SELL Yes	4¢	$86	9d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	BUY Yes	5¢	$65	9d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	BUY Yes	5¢	$38	9d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	7¢	$140	10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$100	11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL Yes	37¢	$218	12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	SELL Yes	37¢	$152	12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY Yes	30¢	$300	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$46	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$26	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.72 · official $293.25 (match) · 50 history records