Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
72 0x725b…68c2 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$134 (+20%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$114
sports 9% +$32
world 4% +$67
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +62.5% +47.1% 77% 69% -11.4%
≤30d 13 +62.5% +47.1% 77% 69% -11.4%
≤90d 13 +62.5% +47.1% 77% 69% -11.4%
all 13 +62.5% +47.1% 77% 69% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.1% 69% -11.4%
10% +33.0% 46% -19.9%
15% +20.1% 31% -27.6%
20% +8.4% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$60 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $178 −$164 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $157 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$43 +216%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +243%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $58 +$11 +20%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$11 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $40 +$6 +16%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$6 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$36 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records