Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x725e…5ea1 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$196 (-35%) realized −$195 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +123.5% +102.2% 100% 100% +102.2%
≤30d 1 +123.5% +102.2% 100% 100% +102.2%
≤90d 5 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 60% -38.3%
all 11 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 45% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 45% -45.1%
10% -37.2% 45% -50.3%
15% -43.3% 36% -55.1%
20% -48.8% 36% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$53 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$195
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage169d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Qatar 75¢ 74¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 24 $28 +$35 +124%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 08 $54 +$15 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $30 +$20 +67%
Capitals vs. Devils Apr 03 $87 −$87 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $74 −$74 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Jets Mar 04 $44 +$31 +70%
Stars vs. Canucks Mar 03 $31 +$17 +56%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Canucks vs. Sabres Jan 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Qatar 75¢ $62 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $28 23h
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $69 46d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $54 49d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $30 50d
Capitals vs. Devils BUY Capitals 50¢ $87 82d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Maple Leafs 48¢ $74 112d
Blackhawks vs. Jets BUY Jets 59¢ $44 113d
Stars vs. Canucks BUY Stars 64¢ $31 114d
Kings vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 64¢ $25 121d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 55¢ $35 132d
Canucks vs. Sabres BUY Canucks 40¢ $27 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.76 · official $60.76 (match) · 27 history records