Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
72 0x7260…dbba crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$869 (-1%) realized +$2,186 · open −$3,055
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%119W / 54L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$957per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$341
7 days+$341
14 days+$341
30 days+$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$1,184
other 33% −$3,193
politics 15% +$620
tech 8% +$1,040
world 2% −$50
sports 1% −$16
culture 0% −$316
economics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.5% -0.9% 71% 71% +18.8%
≤30d 10 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 60% +15.0%
≤90d 13 +5.1% -4.9% 69% 62% +6.1%
all 173 -4.0% -13.2% 69% 31% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 31% -8.2%
10% -21.5% 18% -17.0%
15% -29.1% 14% -25.0%
20% -36.0% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$110 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$945
Realized+$2,186
Unrealized−$3,055
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses119 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage431d
Avg bet$957
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 91¢ 22¢ $4,000 $945 −$3,055 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $598 +$571 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $316 −$305 -97%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $414 +$256 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $285 −$25 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 01 $1,036 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $104 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 24 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 10 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 08 $10,347 +$273 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 08 $315 −$51 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 08 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 08 $116 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 08 $200 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 06 $150 −$58 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 06 $200 +$426 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 06 $110 +$53 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 06 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 06 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 06 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $500 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 06 $500 +$702 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 06 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 06 $55 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 11PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $402 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $137 1h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $575 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $311 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $95 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $300 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $259 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $670 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $372 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1,036 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $129 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $121 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.39 · official $945.39 (match) · 437 history records