Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7263…c90d other 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$200 (+10%) realized +$176 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$152
14 days+$95
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$251
sports 7% −$26
crypto 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 52% +4.3%
≤30d 44 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 48% +2.5%
≤90d 45 -1.7% -11.0% 53% 49% +2.5%
all 47 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 47% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 47% -0.2%
10% -21.1% 38% -9.7%
15% -28.7% 38% -18.4%
20% -35.7% 28% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)47 / 59
History coverage199d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $52 $75 +$23 (+45%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $19 $29 +$10 (+53%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 62¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$17 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 −$7 -31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$20 +56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$13 -43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $40 +$36 +90%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$20 +56%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$16 +46%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $54 +$33 +62%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $146 +$15 +11%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$18 -48%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $35 −$20 -56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$53 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $94 +$17 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 +$38 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$45 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $96 +$34 +35%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $250 +$13 +5%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $15 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $46 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 44h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 3d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.02 · official $333.16 (match) · 276 history records