Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
72 0x7264…8121 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,369 (+19%) realized +$3,375 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 49L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$4,155
sports 16% −$1,105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +6.8% -3.3% 25% 25% +7.0%
≤30d 65 +6.8% -3.3% 25% 25% +7.0%
≤90d 65 +6.8% -3.3% 25% 25% +7.0%
all 65 +6.8% -3.3% 25% 25% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 25% +7.0%
10% -12.6% 23% -3.2%
15% -21.0% 22% -12.6%
20% -28.8% 20% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$670 vs −$156 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$3,375
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage7d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $292 $286 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $769 −$92 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $939 −$918 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $90 −$88 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $396 −$260 -66%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $265 +$4,633 +1749%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,303 −$51 -4%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $982 −$695 -71%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $842 −$826 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $944 −$99 -10%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $526 −$515 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $102 +$426 +416%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $217 −$110 -51%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $255 −$249 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $528 +$576 +109%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $219 +$513 +234%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $98 −$96 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $309 −$302 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $82 +$274 +336%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $132 −$74 -56%
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 24 $46 −$45 -97%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $71 +$218 +307%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $91 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $104 +$237 +227%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $58 −$46 -79%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $327 −$138 -42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $229 −$14 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $907 +$1,504 +166%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $201 −$27 -14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $349 +$208 +60%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $510 −$309 -61%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $153 −$111 -72%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $65 −$37 -57%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$95 -93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $62 −$50 -81%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $306 +$728 +238%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will United States win on 2026-07- BUY $100 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 15¢ $172 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $299 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $505 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $564 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $103 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $39 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 20¢ $90 15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $136 16h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $396 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,898 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $265 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $265 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $291 17h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 2.5 SELL Over $287 17h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $982 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $987 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 18h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 19h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 20h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY $80 20h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND England leading at halftime? AND Will England BUY $100 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $842 42h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $845 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.33 · official $383.49 · 135 history records