Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7267…e91b world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$2
politics 19% +$1
sports 12% −$4
other 12% −$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 27 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 76 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 4% -9.6%
all 78 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -9.9%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage488d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $46 −$2 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$2 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 −$6 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $49 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $38 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $69 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $58 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $58 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $142 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $15 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $44 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $2 $0 +19%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $74 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $53 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $43 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $128 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $41 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $41 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $44 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $41 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $10 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $49 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records