Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
72 0x7267…6f80 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$62 (+6%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$55
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$91
sports 15% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.8% +4.7% 67% 67% -14.7%
≤30d 7 +29.1% +16.8% 71% 71% -4.7%
≤90d 7 +29.1% +16.8% 71% 71% -4.7%
all 7 +29.1% +16.8% 71% 71% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 71% -4.7%
10% +5.6% 71% -13.8%
15% -4.6% 71% -22.2%
20% -13.9% 57% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$199 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$56 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $342 −$338 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$139 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $63 +$69 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $342 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $444 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $61 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $180 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $63 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records