Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x726c…6bfd politics 404 markets active 5h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$549 (-5%) realized −$838 · open +$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%193W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$45
14 days−$411
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$883
other 21% +$120
sports 17% +$38
world 9% +$14
crypto 4% +$35
tech 1% +$3
economics 1% +$19
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 44% -4.3%
≤30d 154 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 55% -13.3%
≤90d 282 +3.6% -6.3% 59% 52% -20.3%
all 351 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 49% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 49% -19.2%
10% -16.5% 43% -26.9%
15% -24.6% 33% -34.0%
20% -31.9% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$1,720
Realized−$838
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses193 / 158
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions53
Markets (closed)351 / 404
History coverage119d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $253 $375 +$123 (+49%)
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? No 58¢ 84¢ $75 $108 +$33 (+44%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 69¢ 83¢ $77 $92 +$15 (+20%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 29¢ 67¢ $39 $90 +$51 (+131%)
Anyone charged over SPLC extremism funding? No 70¢ 82¢ $69 $81 +$12 (+17%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 80¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June? No 58¢ 80¢ $49 $67 +$18 (+38%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 70¢ 80¢ $53 $61 +$7 (+14%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $38 $60 +$21 (+55%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? No 68¢ 81¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+20%)
Will Trump say "Yips" in June? No 60¢ 74¢ $36 $45 +$9 (+24%)
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? No 59¢ 74¢ $35 $45 +$9 (+26%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Elon post "Knicks" on X this week? No 75¢ 56¢ $54 $40 −$14 (-25%)
Will Trump say "Antifa" in June? No 61¢ 69¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Trump say "Regarded" in June? No 65¢ 54¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-17%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 63¢ 58¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Will Trump say "Satan" in June? No 73¢ 83¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+13%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 30¢ $32 $27 −$4 (-14%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 78¢ 88¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+13%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $165B by June 30? No 55¢ 48¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-13%)
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? No 71¢ 90¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+27%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 44¢ $36 $22 −$14 (-38%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 77¢ 76¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $49 +$11 +22%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Trump say "Obama" this week? Jun 15 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $236 −$90 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $28 −$8 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $111 +$66 +59%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$13 -22%
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit Jun 13 $33 +$18 +56%
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 40% ahead of Google’s classified circuit Jun 13 $146 +$57 +39%
Will the announcers say "Freedom" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 09 $33 −$29 -86%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" in June? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 09 $279 −$279 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$11 -93%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -57%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -91%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Jun 07 $4 $0 +8%
Trump on $250 bill this year? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" this week? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $116 −$26 -23%
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -25%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 06 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Trump say "Swing State" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $8 +$7 +96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Fuel" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +96%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Trump say "Surplus" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Trump say "Landslide" during coal announcement? Jun 05 $12 +$3 +29%
Will Trump say "Fossil" or "Fuel" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $79 +$24 +30%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 04 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week? Jun 04 $33 −$20 -61%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $169 −$20 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $34 +$17 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $0 4h
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $10 4h
Will Elon post "Knicks" on X this week? BUY No 75¢ $5 5h
Will Elon post "Knicks" on X this week? BUY No 75¢ $49 5h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3 12h
Will Trump say "Yips" in June? BUY No 60¢ $37 21h
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 21h
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 21h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $13 21h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 33h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $1 37h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 39h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $28 39h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY No 87¢ $4 41h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $3 2d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $12 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 2d
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $16 2d
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $47 2d
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $4 2d
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 2d
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,719.63 · official $1,719.64 (match) · 1380 history records