Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x726d…be45 other 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 202L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 25% −$19
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$6
world 4% −$3
economics 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 213 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage129d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $566 −$4 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $584 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $445 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $410 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $351 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 2h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 7h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 8h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 13h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 15h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 16h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 30h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 32h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 34h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 36h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 37h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 38h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $52 43h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $52 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.04 · official $51.04 (match) · 1310 history records