Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
72 0x726f…5808 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-10%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$15
crypto 38% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.2% +6.1% 100% 100% +6.1%
≤30d 1 +17.2% +6.1% 100% 100% +6.1%
≤90d 10 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 40% -10.2%
all 10 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 40% -10.2%
10% -29.4% 20% -18.8%
15% -36.2% 20% -26.6%
20% -42.5% 20% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage62d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $86 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 13 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $0 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $13 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $10 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 70¢ $17 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 17¢ $0 54m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $20 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 40¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 55¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 50¢ $18 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 77¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 9¢ $22 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 7¢ $21 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 73¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 67¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 24¢ $11 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $6 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records