Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7271…f32e crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$330 (-2%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate82%120W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$90
14 days−$205
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.7% -13.8% 84% 42% -15.3%
≤30d 125 -3.3% -12.5% 82% 51% -11.7%
≤90d 146 -3.8% -13.0% 82% 50% -10.3%
all 146 -3.8% -13.0% 82% 50% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -10.3%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.9%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$78 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses120 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage47d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$36 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$45 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $43 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$43 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $58 +$12 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $33 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $33 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $33 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records