Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7272…5837 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
politics 21% $0
sports 16% $0
other 15% +$6
culture 8% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage300d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $112 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $6 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $47 +$7 +15%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $172 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $2 $0 -5%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $29 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $25 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 20h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $35.00 (match) · 147 history records