Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7274…5040 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$774 (+27%) realized +$775 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%84W / 76L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$677
14 days+$765
30 days+$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$732
other 14% +$23
crypto 4% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +27.5% +15.3% 66% 64% +21.5%
≤30d 160 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 51% +18.1%
≤90d 160 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 51% +18.1%
all 160 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 51% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 51% +18.1%
10% -20.4% 47% +6.8%
15% -28.1% 42% -3.5%
20% -35.1% 35% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$775
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses84 / 76
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions7
Markets (closed)160 / 167
History coverage27d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$141 +276%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$83 +82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 +$155 +152%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $102 +$20 +20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$59 +58%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$31 +152%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +74%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$29 +116%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$60 +119%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$36 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$4 +414%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$16 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $184 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $101 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $160 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $102 2d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $103 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.53 · official $408.53 (match) · 319 history records