Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x7279…35d8 sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$178 (+1%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$33
14 days−$72
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$310
other 29% +$42
sports 17% +$145
world 6% −$52
crypto 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 16 -7.2% -16.0% 6% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 60 +5.6% -4.5% 18% 17% -12.3%
all 106 +11.3% +0.7% 38% 35% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 35% -10.3%
10% -8.9% 34% -18.9%
15% -17.7% 33% -26.7%
20% -25.8% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage230d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $297 −$33 -11%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $143 +$13 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $118 −$4 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $49 −$47 -97%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $67 −$3 -4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $438 −$6 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $160 +$25 +15%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $826 −$272 -33%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $851 −$3 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $352 −$4 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 02 $651 −$3 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $591 −$3 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $330 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $150 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $55 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 11¢ $121 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 13¢ $147 3h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $144 41h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $150 41h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $52 5d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $49 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $49 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $36 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $82 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $42 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records