Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x727a…1174 crypto 1481 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,582 (-8%) realized −$1,582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%913W / 568L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$324
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$757
other 5% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -14.8% -22.9% 66% 36% -20.2%
≤30d 630 -8.9% -17.6% 64% 47% -19.2%
≤90d 1481 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 51% -13.6%
all 1481 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 51% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 51% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 39% -21.9%
15% -31.6% 27% -29.4%
20% -38.3% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses913 / 568
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1481 / 1481
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1481 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$13 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $37 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $24 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records