Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
72 0x727a…77fd other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$28 (+19%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$116
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$57
other 34% $0
economics 15% −$22
culture 5% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1017.5% +911.1% 100% 100% +911.1%
≤30d 1 +1017.5% +911.1% 100% 100% +911.1%
≤90d 1 +1017.5% +911.1% 100% 100% +911.1%
all 6 +86.2% +68.5% 17% 17% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.5% 17% +16.1%
10% +52.4% 17% +5.0%
15% +37.7% 17% -5.2%
20% +24.2% 17% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1018% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$18 · ×6.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage277d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $11 +$116 +1018%
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $65m and $70 Nov 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Oct 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Sep 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $127 2h
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 229d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 259d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 266d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 266d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 266d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 266d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 267d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 267d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 268d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 268d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 268d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 269d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 269d
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 273d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 273d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 273d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.17 · official $50.17 (match) · 61 history records