Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7282…2d77 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$70 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$47
economics 11% +$13
world 6% +$15
sports 6% +$1
politics 6% −$53
crypto 5% −$76
tech 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -33.0% -39.4% 33% 28% -12.4%
≤30d 20 -28.9% -35.6% 40% 25% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -21.1% -28.6% 47% 22% -9.6%
all 70 -24.2% -31.5% 44% 23% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 23% -12.7%
10% -38.0% 20% -21.0%
15% -44.0% 19% -28.7%
20% -49.5% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage589d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $87 +$61 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $76 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$33 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -55%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$25 +122%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $64 +$5 +8%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $109 +$6 +5%
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 29 $80 +$2 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $100 +$1 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 17 $25 −$6 -24%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -33%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $37 +$60 +161%
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 03 $40 +$11 +28%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $31 +$19 +59%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Apr 01 $64 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $75 −$55 -74%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $27 −$6 -23%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 19 $166 −$53 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 09 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 09 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 09 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 08 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $12 −$7 -56%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $87 +$3 +4%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $87 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 47¢ $10 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $10 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 38h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 38h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 46h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $74 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $35 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 93¢ $45 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $20 6d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 16d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 19d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 20d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.64 · official $78.64 (match) · 264 history records