Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7283…02b9 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$97 (+2%) realized +$91 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate100%50W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 4% -7.7%
≤30d 50 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 4% -7.7%
≤90d 50 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 4% -7.7%
all 50 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 4% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -7.7%
10% -16.7% 0% -16.6%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.6%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses50 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage4d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $101 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $101 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $96 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.85 · official $105.85 (match) · 101 history records