Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
72 0x7286…c16f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$23 (+10%) realized +$21 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +23.8%
≤30d 9 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +23.8%
≤90d 9 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +23.8%
all 9 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 67% +23.8%
10% +3.6% 67% +12.0%
15% -6.4% 56% +1.2%
20% -15.6% 56% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$32 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$25 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$7 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $44 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.28 · official $81.28 (match) · 18 history records