Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x7287…56d5
crypto · 1156 markets active 3h ago
3.5score
+$5,412 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,413 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$641
Realized+$5,413
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses812 / 337
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1149 / 1156
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 7 History 1149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $231 $254 +$23 (+10%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $101 $94 −$7 (-7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $96 $82 −$14 (-14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 45¢ 60¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-31%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 8¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 12 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 12 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 12 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 10 $39 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 10 $40 −$17 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 10 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 10 $39 −$19 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 10 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 10 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 10 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 10 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 09 $39 −$28 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 09 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 09 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 09 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $39 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 09 $40 −$23 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 09 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 09 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 08 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 08 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 08 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 08 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 08 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 08 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 08 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 08 $21 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 08 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 08 $21 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$493
other 15% +$747
politics 6% +$230
tech 2% −$152
sports 0% +$5,368
world 0% −$101
economics 0% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 40¢ $205 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $206 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 8¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $9 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $19 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $11 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $19 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $23 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $39 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $23 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $40 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $20 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $40 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $20 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $39 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +11.9% +1.2% 100% 100% +1.2%
≤90d 665 -1.4% -10.7% 70% 39% -11.0%
all 1149 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 47% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 47% -0.7%
10% -18.6% 13% -10.2%
15% -26.5% 3% -18.9%
20% -33.7% 1% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $640.84 · official $640.85 (match) · 2610 history records