Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7287…5375 weather 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+0%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%162W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$33
14 days+$62
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 162 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 162 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 162 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$762
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses162 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage16d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $334 $334 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $257 $257 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $474 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 23 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $661 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? Jun 22 $161 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $294 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $584 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 22 $215 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 22 $389 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 22 $156 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 22 $190 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 22 $354 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $649 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $152 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $724 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $344 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $467 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $376 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 21 $125 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $434 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $493 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 20 $339 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $165 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $297 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $451 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,041 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $850 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $640 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 19 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? Jun 19 $277 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $282 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $474 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $334 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $171 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $257 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $220 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $661 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $161 12h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $461 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $124 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $197 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $294 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $190 20h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $156 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $201 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $215 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $190 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $354 26h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $158 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $649 36h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $132 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $419 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $761.89 · official $761.89 (match) · 582 history records