Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x728b…ac0a
weather · 326 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$38 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses134 / 186
Open positions6
Markets (closed)320 / 326
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 6 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$15
14 days+$14
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 22? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 20? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 22? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kings vs. Pistons Kings 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on January 18? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 23? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Senators Golden Knights 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 25? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +599%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 59% −$17
other 15% +$9
crypto 12% −$16
sports 10% −$9
world 2% −$2
politics 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +53.3% +38.7% 48% 44% +40.5%
≤30d 73 +19.7% +8.3% 53% 48% -1.2%
≤90d 171 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 44% -13.2%
all 320 -8.2% -17.0% 42% 38% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 38% -18.6%
10% -24.9% 32% -26.4%
15% -32.2% 27% -33.5%
20% -38.8% 21% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.14 · official $5.14 (match) · 533 history records