Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
72 0x728c…c269 crypto 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$857 (-7%) realized −$857 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%245W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$43
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$714
sports 5% −$104
weather 0% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.3% -39.6% 36% 36% +2.1%
≤30d 16 -27.8% -34.6% 31% 31% -3.5%
≤90d 16 -27.8% -34.6% 31% 31% -3.5%
all 365 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 56% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 56% -15.9%
10% -18.5% 43% -24.0%
15% -26.4% 36% -31.3%
20% -33.6% 8% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses245 / 120
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage165d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $296 +$63 +21%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $4 +$9 +218%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $4 +$9 +226%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 04 $10 −$8 -81%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 04 $10 −$6 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 04 $20 −$4 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 04 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 03 $20 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 03 $5 −$4 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 03 $161 −$161 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 03 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 03 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 03 $11 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 03 $110 +$8 +7%
WPL: Gujarat Giants Women vs Delhi Capitals Women Feb 03 $48 −$41 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 03 $10 +$4 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 03 $10 +$6 +58%
International T20 Series: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 3) Feb 03 $10 −$7 -71%
U19 World Cup: Australia Under-19s vs England Under-19s Feb 03 $10 −$8 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 03 $10 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 03 $11 +$4 +39%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 03 $10 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 03 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 03 $11 +$4 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 31 $21 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 31 $10 +$5 +45%
International T20 Series: Pakistan vs Australia (Game 2) Jan 31 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 31 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 31 $158 +$10 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 31 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 67¢ $16 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 52¢ $137 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 37¢ $7 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 37¢ $102 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 61¢ $2 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 41¢ $107 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $96 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 51¢ $97 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $91 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $2 3h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 15¢ $5 31h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 17¢ $5 31h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 16¢ $6 31h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 31¢ $5 47h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 9¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 98¢ $13 2d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 30¢ $4 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $2 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 68¢ $2 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 72¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $3 8d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 8d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 62¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $2 8d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 0¢ $1 8d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 0¢ $2 8d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 0¢ $2 8d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 29¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1103 history records