Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7294…68fe world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
other 16% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.2% -11.6% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 0% -9.8%
all 50 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $16 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $2 $0 -12%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadi Apr 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 05 $18 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 20 $17 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $49 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $49 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.55 · official $48.55 (match) · 168 history records