Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
72 0x7294…3b5d sports 34 markets active 3d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39,193 (-53%) realized −$39,193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,191per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$455est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38,060
14 days−$38,060
30 days−$39,474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$38,199
other 20% −$1,276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 53% -56.9%
≤30d 34 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 50% -57.7%
≤90d 34 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 50% -57.7%
all 34 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 50% -57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 50% -57.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 50% -61.7%
15% -27.6% 44% -65.4%
20% -34.7% 41% -68.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$622 vs −$3,419 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39,193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$455
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2,191
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40,769 −$40,526 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,015 +$964 +95%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $855 +$561 +66%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $507 +$349 +69%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,539 −$2,519 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $504 +$163 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 −$121 -79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,266 −$1,224 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,872 +$2,678 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $507 +$419 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $504 −$500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $505 +$264 +52%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $506 +$314 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $507 +$465 +92%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,007 +$276 +27%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,013 +$28 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6,014 +$517 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$266 -52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $622 +$236 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $508 +$534 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$51 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,104 +$2,212 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $255 +$637 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,997 −$1,969 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $1,026 +$1,082 +105%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $434 −$426 -98%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 20 $1,003 −$988 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1,979 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $1,979 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $1,417 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,416 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $855 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 91¢ $856 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $19 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $22,052 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1,015 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $512 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $43 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $504 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 71¢ $504 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $505 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $507 4d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $507 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,007 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $507 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $505 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $2,520 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,548 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5,007 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $506 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,819 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $505 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records