Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
72 0x7296…4568 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$97 (+14%) realized +$122 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$34
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1
sports 24% +$59
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +11.6% +0.9% 45% 45% -3.5%
≤30d 35 +11.1% +0.5% 46% 46% +1.0%
≤90d 35 +11.1% +0.5% 46% 46% +1.0%
all 35 +11.1% +0.5% 46% 46% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 46% +1.0%
10% -9.1% 46% -8.7%
15% -17.9% 43% -17.5%
20% -25.9% 37% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +473%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 21m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 35h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.17 · official $45.18 (match) · 58 history records