trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.1% | -7.7% | 50% | 0% | -7.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +15.1% | +4.2% | 91% | 45% | -2.9% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +10.2% | -0.3% | 81% | 38% | -3.0% |
| all | 16 | +10.2% | -0.3% | 81% | 38% | -3.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.3% | 38% | -3.0% |
| 10% | -9.8% | 25% | -12.3% |
| 15% | -18.6% | 19% | -20.8% |
| 20% | -26.5% | 6% | -28.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $59 | $59 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $52 | $52 | −$0 (-1%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | No | 63¢ | 62¢ | $40 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $37 | $36 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $13 | $13 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 29 | $93 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 29 | $113 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 19 | $70 | +$19 | +27% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 19 | $2 | +$1 | +43% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 19 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $63 | +$5 | +8% |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $37 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +16% |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | Jun 07 | $2 | +$1 | +42% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 24 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 24 | $2 | +$2 | +101% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |