Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
72 0x729b…1b33 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$735 (+8%) realized +$906 · open −$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,083per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,772
crypto 32% +$1,236
other 18% −$1,201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 62% +11.6%
≤30d 8 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 62% +11.6%
≤90d 8 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 62% +11.6%
all 8 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 62% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 62% +11.6%
10% -5.0% 62% +0.9%
15% ← realistic here -14.1% 62% -8.9%
20% -22.6% 50% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$778 vs −$638 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,068
Realized+$906
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,083
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 56¢ 48¢ $1,239 $1,068 −$171 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $681 −$678 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $1,920 +$735 +38%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $1,674 +$1,242 +74%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi Jun 20 $67 −$34 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $937 +$773 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $520 +$418 +80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,716 −$1,201 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $976 +$723 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 38¢ $3 20m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $678 21m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 44¢ $260 23m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $2,655 29m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 59¢ $489 43m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 61¢ $506 44m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 84¢ $979 52m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 62¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 62¢ $364 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 65¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $202 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo SELL FOKUS 100¢ $2,916 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 57¢ $1,674 7h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi SELL Sae Noguchi 28¢ $33 7h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 55¢ $60 8h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 54¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $519 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $382 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $520 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $515 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,716 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $48 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $344 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $68 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $459 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $56 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.81 · official $1,733.68 · 32 history records