Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72a0…9bc4 sports 1443 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$127 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate78%1121W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$789
7 days−$162
14 days+$19
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 61% -10.3%
≤30d 653 -1.0% -10.5% 78% 62% -9.8%
≤90d 1438 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 61% -9.7%
all 1438 -1.1% -10.5% 78% 61% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 61% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 33% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 10% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1121 / 317
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1438 / 1443
History coverage81d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 82¢ 100¢ $108 $132 +$24 (+22%)
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez Guido Justo 95¢ 100¢ $125 $131 +$7 (+5%)
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Roman Safiullin 86¢ 100¢ $110 $128 +$18 (+16%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Titouan Droguet 81¢ 80¢ $99 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Sara Bejlek 85¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $124 +$10 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $109 +$15 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $163 +$49 +30%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $103 +$22 +21%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $95 +$21 +23%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $102 +$19 +18%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $95 +$23 +24%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $112 +$21 +18%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $56 −$17 -30%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $87 +$29 +33%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $168 −$166 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $223 +$38 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $116 +$18 +16%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $88 +$28 +32%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $52 +$32 +62%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $200 +$47 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $129 +$13 +10%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $108 +$23 +21%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $43 +$7 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $92 +$26 +28%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $106 +$20 +18%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $61 −$51 -82%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $109 −$108 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $221 −$220 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $133 +$11 +8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $112 +$21 +18%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $134 +$11 +8%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $118 +$21 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $109 +$27 +25%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $116 −$116 -99%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $141 +$14 +10%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $255 +$45 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $110 +$27 +24%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $120 −$119 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $116 +$25 +21%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $154 +$10 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $139 +$17 +12%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $74 −$11 -15%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $211 +$54 +26%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $60 +$34 +57%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $109 −$109 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $95 +$31 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 81¢ $100 18m
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 86¢ $97 33m
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 86¢ $6 33m
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 86¢ $7 39m
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 77¢ $57 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 77¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 75¢ $13 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 77¢ $9 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 88¢ $32 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 88¢ $77 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 76¢ $79 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 85¢ $9 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 85¢ $93 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Guido Justo 95¢ $125 1h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 92¢ $124 1h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 81¢ $95 2h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 94¢ $130 2h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 80¢ $95 2h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 84¢ $102 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 82¢ $103 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 46¢ $39 3h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 78¢ $92 3h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 64¢ $56 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 84¢ $112 4h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 70¢ $76 4h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 72¢ $72 4h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 72¢ $7 4h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 75¢ $87 5h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 88¢ $121 5h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 82¢ $86 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.66 · official $485.96 (match) · 3264 history records