Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
72 0x72a1…1950 sports 1490 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,879 (-3%) realized −$3,472 · open −$407
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%614W / 801L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$695est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$17
14 days+$31
30 days+$2,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$7,989
other 3% +$1,332
politics 1% −$423
crypto 1% +$1,108
world 1% +$496
culture 0% −$63
tech 0% −$10
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.1% -33.1% 42% 42% -14.3%
≤30d 20 +20.4% +9.0% 50% 50% +81.3%
≤90d 372 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 52% -24.5%
all 1415 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% -13.4%
10% -20.9% 43% -21.7%
15% -28.5% 42% -29.3%
20% -35.6% 40% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$68 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$2,603
Realized−$3,472
Unrealized−$407
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses614 / 801
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$695
Open positions79
Markets (closed)1415 / 1490
History coverage165d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 1415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $200 $355 +$155 (+77%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $300 $234 −$66 (-22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $216 +$116 (+116%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 37¢ 19¢ $400 $205 −$195 (-49%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $101 $129 +$28 (+27%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 80¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+53%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 31¢ 8¢ $200 $51 −$149 (-75%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Over 56¢ 54¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ 50¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $10 $45 +$35 (+349%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 45¢ 100¢ $20 $44 +$24 (+122%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 52¢ 38¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 17¢ 86¢ $6 $31 +$25 (+419%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$28 +140%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $306 +$539 +176%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,000 −$492 -49%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $103 −$3 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $101 +$40 +40%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 31 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 +$58 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $410 +$2,002 +488%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 11 $15 +$10 +64%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026 May 11 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 11 $50 +$60 +120%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 03 $230 +$167 +73%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 03 $2,000 +$2,863 +143%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Hawks Total Games O/U 5.5 May 03 $230 +$151 +65%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $1,559 −$548 -35%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $128 −$48 -37%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $1,205 +$503 +42%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $11,370 −$13,119 -115%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will David Adelman win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $150 −$150 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 19 $100 −$97 -97%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 19 $100 +$101 +101%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $200 +$83 +42%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $200 +$96 +48%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Los Angeles Clippers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Devin Booker: Points O/U 26.5 Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 217.5 Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 45¢ $41 1h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $30 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $51 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 2¢ $5 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $31 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $51 5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 58¢ $51 5h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $20 11h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $30 11h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $20 11h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $30 12h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $20 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $30 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 12h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $30 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $20 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 26h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY 61¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,603.09 · official $2,690.31 · 3500 history records