Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x72a7…34eb other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$327 (+8%) realized +$299 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 31L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$31
14 days−$181
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3
world 38% +$175
sports 12% +$53
politics 4% +$7
crypto 2% −$22
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 42% -12.4%
≤30d 37 -33.2% -39.6% 35% 32% -16.9%
≤90d 68 -7.4% -16.3% 54% 50% -4.4%
all 68 -7.4% -16.3% 54% 50% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 50% -4.4%
10% -24.3% 34% -13.5%
15% -31.6% 24% -21.9%
20% -38.3% 10% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 31
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions16
Markets (closed)68 / 84
History coverage66d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+49%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 86¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+53%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 93¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 46¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 −$17 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$23 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$29 +27%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 19 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 +$33 +31%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 18 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$11 -50%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$17 -43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$22 -21%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$11 +53%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 15 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $200 −$55 -27%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,400 on April 22, 7AM ET? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$30 +94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,000 on April 22, 7AM ET? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $105 +$19 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $21 −$10 -47%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $100 +$40 +40%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $200 +$22 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 23 $11 −$10 -96%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 16 $11 −$7 -62%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 +$6 +64%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? May 04 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 +$2 +19%
FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026? Apr 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $220 +$104 +47%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M Apr 23 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $100 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $88 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 7h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $128 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $134 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 28h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 17¢ $4 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $138 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $11 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $19 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 58¢ $83 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $105 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $888.90 · official $888.93 (match) · 247 history records