Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

72 0x72ae…1166 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$12 (+42%) realized +$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip

Net edge+48%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day9.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+60.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+77.6%	+60.7%	38%	38%	+33.0%
≤30d	8	+77.6%	+60.7%	38%	38%	+33.0%
≤90d	8	+77.6%	+60.7%	38%	38%	+33.0%
all	8	+77.6%	+60.7%	38%	38%	+33.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.7%	38%	+33.0%
10%	+45.3%	38%	+20.3%
15%	+31.3%	38%	+8.6%
20%	+18.4%	38%	-2.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +78% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage2d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day9.1

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Yes	48¢	48¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner	Jun 15	$8	+$15	+180%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$7	+650%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2	+$6	+291%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner	BUY Egypt	35¢	$8	22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	27h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	38h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$3	40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.93 (match) · 18 history records