Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72b0…1984 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$45
other 19% −$18
crypto 6% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.1% -4.9% 40% 20% -7.7%
≤30d 6 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 17% -8.9%
≤90d 17 +7.7% -2.6% 53% 24% -4.6%
all 41 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 10% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 10% -7.6%
10% -17.2% 5% -16.4%
15% -25.2% 2% -24.5%
20% -32.5% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage300d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $89 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $16 +$4 +22%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $76 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $81 +$3 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $84 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $85 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $36 +$9 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $9 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $116 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $47 +$33 +70%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $7 +$1 +15%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 25 $22 −$19 -86%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $33 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $36 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $89 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $89 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $48 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $35 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $84 40h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $71 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $81 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $56 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $84 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $84 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $22 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records