Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
72 0x72b3…e5bd other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+4%) realized +$85 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$130
14 days+$118
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$163
sports 20% +$222
tech 5% +$79
world 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 46% -1.3%
≤30d 26 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 38% -7.9%
≤90d 26 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 38% -7.9%
all 26 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 38% -7.9%
10% -28.0% 38% -16.7%
15% -34.9% 38% -24.8%
20% -41.3% 35% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$73 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage70d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $122 +$253 +206%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $162 +$74 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $158 +$136 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$148 +186%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $103 +$79 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $53 +$79 +149%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $80 +$170 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 32¢ $122 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $102 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $162 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $158 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $228 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $48 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $105 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 41¢ $182 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 22¢ $103 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $53 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $80 22d
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $50 59d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 62d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $25 70d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $25 70d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $48.75 (match) · 45 history records