Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72b9…dd44 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$191 (+1%) realized +$183 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%38W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$2,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$101
crypto 23% +$58
world 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 38 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 38 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,331) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,174
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses38 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage78d
Avg bet$757
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,171 $1,175 +$4 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $773 $776 +$2 (+0%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $141 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,119 +$4 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $197 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $795 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,382 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $705 +$55 +8%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $143 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $37 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $96 +$5 +6%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1,974 +$4 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $396 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 07 $273 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $300 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $300 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $400 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $400 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $400 $0 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 01 $1,804 +$2 +0%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $2,051 +$10 +0%
Pharos FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 29 $2,058 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 28 $2,026 +$32 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 26 $2,018 +$9 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 20 $2,004 +$14 +1%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $978 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1,023 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $668 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $1,331 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $536 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $1,460 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $128 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $128 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $405 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $496 7d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 7d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $81 7d
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $142 7d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,119 13d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,018 13d
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $484 15d
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $560 15d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $795 19d
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 19d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 19d
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 19d
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $626 19d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $203 19d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $140 19d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 19d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $12 19d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,382 32d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,199 32d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 32d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 32d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,174.23 · official $2,174.23 (match) · 126 history records