Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

72 0x72b9…1a66 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$98 (-14%) realized −$82 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip

Net edge-81%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 402d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-80.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	1	-78.8%	-80.8%	0%	0%	-80.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-80.8%	0%	-80.8%
10%	-82.7%	0%	-82.7%
15%	-84.4%	0%	-84.4%
20%	-85.9%	0%	-85.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -79% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$80 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage

Net worth$465

Realized−$82

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)1 / 7

History coverage402d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	11¢	$81	$106	+$25 (+30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$115	$103	−$12 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$114	$91	−$24 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$65	$59	−$6 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$57	$58	+$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$48	$48	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?	May 13	$101	−$80	-79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$7	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$58	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$68	42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$80	42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$69	42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$122	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$123	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$61	5d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	1¢	$21	400d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	5¢	$101	402d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.68 · official $463.69 (match) · 17 history records