Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72b9…664b crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%43W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$87
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$71
sports 26% −$36
other 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -8.3% -17.0% 62% 60% -17.5%
≤30d 73 -13.0% -21.3% 59% 55% -18.5%
≤90d 73 -13.0% -21.3% 59% 55% -18.5%
all 73 -13.0% -21.3% 59% 55% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 55% -18.5%
10% -28.8% 37% -26.3%
15% -35.7% 25% -33.4%
20% -42.0% 11% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses43 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$7 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$12 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $36 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $41 −$41 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $25 +$15 +59%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $22 +$5 +21%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 27 $30 +$16 +52%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $22 −$20 -92%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $25 +$27 +105%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $28 −$28 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink Jun 20 $8 +$2 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $7 +$1 +17%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $14 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $42 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $36 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records