Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bb…281b crypto 744 markets active 2d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,339 (-22%) realized −$755 · open −$584
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%123W / 613L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$8
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,110
crypto 31% −$270
sports 17% −$266
world 3% −$12
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -3.3% -12.5% 17% 14% -14.6%
≤30d 245 -38.1% -44.0% 13% 12% -28.6%
≤90d 416 -54.6% -58.9% 11% 10% -28.4%
all 736 -37.3% -43.3% 17% 16% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 16% -29.5%
10% -48.7% 15% -36.3%
15% -53.7% 14% -42.4%
20% -58.2% 12% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$755
Unrealized−$584
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses123 / 613
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)736 / 744
History coverage124d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $513 $158 −$356 (-69%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $210 $105 −$105 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $40 −$40 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $110 $28 −$82 (-75%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 477 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +419%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +266%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 48¢ $3 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $3 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $3 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $3 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.87 · official $330.88 (match) · 1725 history records