Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bc…c332 sports 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,381 (-9%) realized −$7,381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%101W / 182L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$492est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,779
7 days−$2,475
14 days−$2,111
30 days−$2,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$6,255
other 10% −$1,789
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -12.9% -21.2% 30% 24% -27.9%
≤30d 97 -10.8% -19.3% 33% 25% -22.5%
≤90d 129 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 26% -22.6%
all 283 -5.4% -14.4% 36% 30% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 30% -18.3%
10% -22.6% 26% -26.1%
15% -30.1% 23% -33.3%
20% -36.9% 20% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$128 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized−$7,381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses101 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$492
Open positions3
Markets (closed)283 / 293
History coverage580d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $683 $692 +$10 (+1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $102 $93 −$9 (-9%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Jun 18 $713 −$604 -85%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 18 $325 −$313 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $231 −$179 -77%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $231 −$135 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $473 −$473 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $198 +$56 +28%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 18 $251 −$170 -68%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $252 −$147 -58%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $383 −$113 -30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $198 −$80 -40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $440 −$50 -11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $250 +$480 +192%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $399 +$89 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $111 +$310 +280%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 −$50 -50%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$12 -46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 +$31 +22%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $165 −$32 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$88 +87%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $161 −$57 -35%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 −$30 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $24 $0 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 +$103 +108%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$41 -89%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $54 −$12 -22%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $256 +$105 +41%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$11 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 24m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 26m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $123 55m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $136 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 11¢ $54 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $121 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 45¢ $221 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $74 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $71 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 57¢ $169 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.32 · official $800.32 (match) · 2833 history records